#1

“It’s always better to play the long game”

One thing that has always guided me, and I intend to carry with me into 2025, is this statement often attributed to Bill Gates:

“We always tend to overestimate the rate of change on a two year basis, but underestimate the rate of change on a 10 year basis.”

What will get me through 2025?First and foremost, knowing that thinking long-term is a crucial aspect of navigating a volatile world. Along with many other people, I think that 2025 be a wild and unpredictable year, and so keeping the long-term trends – playing the long game – will be a good way to stay focused on what matters.That’s not to say you shouldn’t watch the trends in 2025 – while it’s important to keep on top of short-term issues, losing sight of the long-term reality in the face of short-term challenges can be pretty detrimental. You’ll end up obsessing over the volatility as opposed to focusing on the opportunity. Even so, that can be a challenge when short-term issues dominate the news. That’s why I always suggest trying to keep an eye on the ‘big future‘ – the long-term trends of real substance.The fact is, individuals and organizations who prioritize short-term thinking often experience negative outcomes – because it can lead to missed opportunities, failed initiatives, and ultimately, failed strategies over the long term. Not only that but too much of a focus on short-term views can often bring despair – that’s maybe a big issue in 2025. On the other hand, keeping a longer-term vision can help foster hope or reinforce it! It allows you to focus on long-term realities without being bogged down by short-term challenges.All of that is going to be particularly important in 2025.That’s what I’ll remind myself throughout the year of my oft-repeated phrase markets are not trends – they are often only short-term fluctuations that aren’t necessarily indicative of the long-term trends shaping the future. In 2025, try to remain focused on the trends defining the future, even amidst the market volatility that will define the year.I’m continuing to explore how to use AI to take apart the over 3,000 Daily inspiration posts I’ve done. I asked ChatGPT to prepare an overview table about the issue of playing the long game. It analyzed my work and came back with the table below. I’ve modified a bit it for readability, but it’s a pretty good summary.I also had Claude.Ai create a chart from the material – and it looks fantastic. You can expand the image here. This is a pretty cool feature of Claude – it literally took seconds to create this!

Carroll’s advice consistently highlights the importance of aligning actions and decisions with a long-term vision to ensure future success in an era of accelerating change

1. Short-Term Optimism vs. Long-Term RealitiesKey Point: People often expect rapid advancements but underestimate the systemic hurdles (e.g., infrastructure, adoption, regulation).
Lesson: Significant change requires compound efforts over time.
Action Plan: Balance immediate enthusiasm with long-term planning, focusing on incremental progress.2. Exponential growth is subtle initiallyKey Point: Technologies grow exponentially, but the early stages appear linear (e.g., AI in 2010 vs. 2024).
Lesson: Small gains today can lead to massive shifts tomorrow.
Action Plan: Invest in areas with exponential potential, even if returns seem modest now.3. Human resistance to change is hard to overcomeKey Point: Short-term change is limited by habits, culture, and institutional inertia.
Lesson: Change often accelerates once initial barriers are broken.
Action Plan: Focus on education and stakeholder engagement to build momentum for change.4. The Hype Cycles are what really determine the futureKey Point: Technologies are overhyped in the short term but deliver long-term value (e.g., blockchain).
Lesson: Differentiate between hype and genuine, scalable innovation.
Action Plan: Use tools like Gartner’s Hype Cycle to time investments and strategies effectively.5. Policy and regulation usually lag disruptionKey Point: Governments adapt slowly to disruptive technologies.
Lesson: Policy support often comes after technologies prove their value.
Action Plan: Engage with policymakers early to advocate for enabling legislation.6. Economic cycles are predictableKey Point: Short-term recessions can mask long-term growth trends.
Lesson: Don’t let temporary downturns overshadow the big picture.
Action Plan: Diversify investments and maintain resilience during economic uncertainty.7. Critical mass doesn’t happen with every trend quicklyKey Point: Innovations take time to reach critical mass (e.g., social media adoption).
Lesson: Scaling amplifies impact over time.
Action Plan: Encourage widespread adoption by lowering entry barriers for early users.8. Generational shifts always occur slowlyKey Point: New generations redefine industries (e.g., Millennials and gig economy).
Lesson: Younger generations grow into their influence.
Action Plan: Develop strategies that align with evolving generational priorities.9. “Infrastructure gaps” slow down changeKey Point: Infrastructure to support innovation takes years to build (e.g., EV charging networks).
Lesson: Infrastructure lags behind innovation, but it eventually catalyzes adoption.
Action Plan: Advocate for public and private investment in foundational systems.10. Compounding innovation doesn’t happen all at once.Key Point: Each breakthrough builds on the last (e.g., cloud computing enabling AI).
Lesson: Cumulative effects create long-term disruption.
Action Plan: Track and leverage emerging synergies between technologies.11. Evolving consumer behavior always involves trustKey Point: People adopt innovations once trust is established (e.g., online banking).
Lesson: Adoption curves may start slow but accelerate rapidly.
Action Plan: Focus on building trust and improving user experience.12. R&D timelines aren’t instantKey Point: Groundbreaking discoveries require years of research and development.
Lesson: Significant advancements often come after sustained effort.
Action Plan: Commit to long-term R&D funding and partnerships.13. Long-term economic incentives are usually realisticKey Point: Long-term investments often require clear economic benefits.
Lesson: The market rewards sustained, impactful innovation.
Action Plan: Align business models with sustainable value creation.14. Unintended consequences can often hinder progressKey Point: Short-term changes can lead to unexpected long-term results (e.g., social media’s impact on democracy).
Lesson: Anticipate and adapt to secondary effects.
Action Plan: Monitor and address risks associated with innovation.15. Widespread cultural acceptance is never fastKey Point: Cultural shifts lag technological advancement (e.g., remote work pre-COVID-19).
Lesson: Mainstream acceptance solidifies long-term change.
Action Plan: Create narratives that resonate with cultural values.16. Educational foundations are NEVER fastKey Point: Education systems take years to align with new workforce demands.
Lesson: Training today’s youth shapes tomorrow’s leaders.
Action Plan: Partner with educational institutions to upskill the next generation.In the context of all this, also keep in mind this weird rule about the future – often, when it happens slowly, it can often sometimes happen all at once, particularly when. these hurdles play out.

#2

"Follow the science"

If anything will keep me rooted in reality and on the side of optimism in 2025 it will be by continuing to follow the science.This is in a society in which it seems an incredible number of people continue to reject the reality of both the fact of science itself and the acceleration that is occurring, which is, by and large, improving their lives. Odd.I shared this slide at a recent event that have to do with our world today.

Three numbers stand out. The cost of sequencing the human genome has gone from about $100 million in 2011 to $200 or less today. The cost of 3D printing from about $50 per cm2 in 2010 to less than fifty cents today. Battery storage technology has gone from $1,100 per kWh to less than $100 today. This is from a section where I speak to the fact that we live in what I call ‘the era of acceleration’ – simply, we live in a time in which we continue to see the development of magical new ideas that lead to massive new opportunities in a fascinating new future.While it’s difficult to state the absolute accuracy of numbers such as this because things are moving so fast, the fact i, that similar trends abound.Consider technology. The most telling sign of acceleration has to do with the computing cost per calculation – and that has dropped from $1.24 per gigaFLOP in 2000 to $0.03 by 2020. All this while computers keep getting faster – supercomputer speed increased from 4.9 teraFLOPS in 2000 to 442 petaFLOPS in 2020, and quantum computer qubits scaled from 5 qubits in 2015 to over 400 qubits in 2023. You don’t need to know what these ideas mean – you just need to appreciate that change is crazy fast.m Those are pretty big leaps in every perspective, and what it means is that the basic trends of computers that are faster, better, and cheaper will only continue to accelerate.How about medical science? Genetic engineering? CRISPR gene editing accuracy improved from 77% in 2012 to 99.7% in 2022, and the cost per successful gene edit has decreased from $5,000 in 2015 to $100 or less in 2023. The actual time required for gene modification has reduced from months to hours between 2010-2023. Keep in mind that these trends are leading to faster discoveries of the origins and treatment of cancer and other diseases, as well as other profound new medical discoveries. In that vein, how about medical imaging? The ability to ‘see’ has improved from an accuracy of 1.5mm in 2000 to 0.1mm and less by 2020. That’s happening while things get faster – brain scanning speed increased from 20 minutes per scan in 2000 to 5 seconds in 2022 – all while the image resolution keeps getting better, as the data storage per scan reduced from 1GB in 2000 to 100MB in 2020 despite higher resolution images. How about drug discovery? The time to screen 1 million compounds reduced from 1 year in 2000 to 1 day in 2020, leading to an increase in computer-predicted drug candidate discovery increasing from 100 per year to 10,000 per year between 2010-2020.Then there is materials science. The discovery of new materials is at the heart of many new trends and discoveries – and the discovery time for new materials has decreased from 20 years to 2 years or less between 2000 and 2020. Better computer simulation in the discovery of new materials is improving, with accuracy going from 60% to 99% between 2010 and 2023. What does that mean? A practical reality is that the number of known crystalline materials increased from 50,000 in 2000 to over 1 million in 2023. Any single new scientific discovery can lead to new industries, disruptive inventions, and ‘things’ that we cannot yet imagine. How about solar panels? The cost per watt of solar decreased from $7.50 in 2000 to $0.20 in 2023, driven by many factors, one being that solar panel efficiency increased from 12% in 2000 to 47% in 2023.All this is happening before the impact of AI. How fast is it changing? The training time for large models decreased from 1 month in 2018 to 1 day in 2023, while the model parameter count grew from 1 billion in 2018 to 1.8 trillion in 2023. One of the biggest impacts of AI has to do with machine vision and machine learning – and for that, task accuracy improved from 85% to 99% between 2015-2023 in image recognition. Consider this slide from my deck which outlines that the cost of ‘training’ AI systems has seen a ridiculous cost collapse in just the last two years, going from $36 per 1 million tokens to thirty-five cents in the case of ChatGPT, and a 97% cost collapse in the cost of training Googe’s AI models at the same time.

I could go on, but you get the point.We live in the era of the acceleration of science, a relentless pace, constantly accelerating even faster. The impact is far-reaching impacts in every single human endeavor. It leads us to fantastic discoveries such as lab-grown human blood for transfusions and surgeries; automated medical and pharmaceutical research laborites; self-healing concrete that is safer and longer lasting 3d printed human organs for transplants; synthetic bacteria used for new materials science; the medical discovery that involves major discoveries every 48 hours; and other fascinating new developments.Science is at the heart of every single discovery, every significant invention, every massive disruption, and every profound transformation.And so while it seems vast numbers of people seem content to view the work of science as some type of hoax, the basis of every conspiracy, and an evil plot designed to ruin their lives. We’ll spend much of 2025 with a ridiculous theatrical experience unfolding that involves grandiose showmanship by those eager to take out their anger and frustration on the very scientists who are leading to a better future.It’s weird, so to speak.How do we get through it all? In my case, I’ll continue to track the trends that will define our future by following the reality of science.It’s where I discover my optimism, reinforce my hope, and continue to discover my exhilaration with tomorrow.

#3

"Be relentless on knowledge discovery"

If there is one phrase that has guided me throughout my career, it's this one:"Learning is what most adults will do for a living in the 21st century."Attributed to educator Lewis Perelman, it's a powerful way to summarize the reality for most people in this fast-moving world.What I know about 2025 is that what I know right now won't be enough to chase the opportunities that might be in front of me tomorrow - I'll probably need new knowledge, new skills, and new insight. What I also know is that the growth of knowledge is relentless, that existing knowledge is fleeting, and that developing the ability to get the right knowledge at the right time for the right purpose is becoming more important than knowledge itself.Hence, relentless learning and relentless knowledge discovery.Some stats bear this out - I'm a sucker for insight on how quickly our world is changing:

What does this lead to?Some studies suggest that most individuals need to learn 5-10 new skills every 3-5 years to remain competitive in their field, compared to the 1980s when the same number of new skills were needed over an entire career. That's because the reality is that it's challenging for everyone, but particularly for specialists, to stay up-to-date with all developments in their field.The career impact? The World Economic Forum estimates each year, some 85 million jobs will disappear. Is that a harbinger of doom? Not at all - at the same time, 97 million new ones will emerge.Reasons like this led me to become a knowledge enthusiast! I've equipped myself with some powerful knowledge tools to get by. One is my go-to research tool, Dow Jones Factiva, which I use for highly targeted and detailed searches that go far beyond the Web. I've mastered the art of high-speed knowledge acquisition through fast information scanning. I learn many new skills, particularly with technology, by 'geeking out' - installing new software, hardware, and tools regularly. (I've probably got close to two dozen computers of one sort or another in my home and chalet, all being used for various purposes.) And I'm accelerating my skills every day by continually learning to master all these new AI tools that are coming about.That's because I see several powerful tools and issues related to knowledge acceleration at work.

Most important is the skill of "just-in-time knowledge," where the challenge isn't just acquiring information but staying ahead of its obsolescence. This involves plugging the knowledge gap - the widening gap between the knowledge we have and the knowledge we need. This gap is growing bigger as the world becomes faster. Then there is the innovation disconnect - organizations trying to get ahead with innovation but failing because they don't have the new knowledge they need to get there. Quite simply, we have to deal with the velocity of skills: the rapid emergence of new technologies means that skills that are in high demand today might become obsolete within a few years - so we all need regular skills replenishment and updating.That's because the future belongs to those who are fast - and from that perspective, those who master fast new knowledge deployment are the ones who succeed. All of this means that leadership teams must move away from the core role of being a repository of knowledge to the role of being a knowledge facilitator - with the core skill being the creation of learning environments rapid learning and adaptation are possible. And this doesn't involve small, incremental steps - it involves 10x thinking - that's order-of-magnitude improvements rather than incremental changes.This is not easy stuff - and that's one reason why there is such a social, political, and economic gap today between the educated and uneducated. Quite simply, many organizations and institutions are failing when it comes to knowledge acceleration, leading to some rather profound societal volatility.I know I can't fix that other than telling the story of knowledge acceleration - but what I also know is that through 2025, one of my methods of getting through and getting ahead will be to continue to double down on my knowledge skills.Oh, and that chart in today's post? That's a new knowledge discovery I just made, learning how to create such powerful insight tools using Claude AI.Just in time knowledge.It's the future of just about everything!

#4

"Presume, in the absence of constant action, your obsolescence"

In 2025, as in other years, I’m going to presume that what I know at this very moment won’t cut it tomorrow.The same holds for you. Not to start this motivational bit of insight with a bit of a downer, but here are some facts that should guide you,Not only should you presume your obsolescence, you should be guided by other realities.Presume, in the absence of constant action, your irrelevance.Presume, in the absence of constant action, your stagnation.Presume, in the absence of constant action, your vulnerability.Presume, in the absence of constant action, your insignificance.Presume, in the absence of constant action, your redundancy.Presume, in the absence of constant action, your regression.Worse, presume, in the absence of constant action, your downfall.Ok, so what’s with that?The fact is, relentless change means you can’t presume that anything you are doing today will be relevant tomorrow, and so you need to be cognizant of a need to relentlessly reinvent.In the context of the previous post about knowledge acceleration, consider a few tidbits.Medicine is seeing the nonstop arrival of new forms of discovery, diagnosis, and treatment, a flood of new medical technologies and systems, and a regular stream of new pharmaceuticals. That means that in the field of healthcare, it is estimated that nurses need to learn new medical devices and monitoring systems every 1-2 years, while doctors must update treatment protocols every 3-6 months based on the latest research. At the same time, pharmacists must learn about new drug interactions and medications monthly, and medical technicians adapt to new diagnostic equipment annually.Construction? It’s all about sustainability, new energy systems, renewables, new materials, robotics, and technology. That means that architects learn new sustainable building materials and techniques yearly, new energy efficiency standards every 2-3 years, new building automation and smart home integration every 1-2 years, and updated structural analysis software and BIM tools every 6-12 months. The construction workers putting all of this new stuff in place have to master new skills involving new technologies and methodologies continuously – as well as learn how to work alongside all the new construction robots arriving on site.Farming? It’s all about science and tech, and with that, the field of precision agriculture is evolving so quickly, that it’s estimated that they need a knowledge refresh each framing season. Not only that, but they have to learn about new pest management techniques annually, new crop varieties and genetics every planting season, and upgrade their skills with drone and automated equipment training every 1-2 years. Just wait until virtual 24-hour farming arrives, and today’s Farmville-playing kid comes to manage real-life Farmville!How about manufacturing? I often share the story from the stage that the typical machinist today is using machines that are so complex that they almost need to be able to do trigonometry in their heads. That means that machine operators need to learn new automation systems every 2-3 years, quality control standards annually, and new safety protocols every 6-12 months. Add robotics into the mix, and that leads to a need for robotics integration training every 1-2 years. Then there is 3d printing and other new manufacturing methodologies – suddenly, what you know now no longer matters.Or financial planning? Insurance? Other financial services? New tax laws and regulations annually, investment products and vehicles every 6 months, and financial software platforms every 1-2 years. Automotive technicians? Because cars are essentially becoming computers on wheels, they need to learn about new vehicle systems annually, diagnostic equipment updates quarterly, and new trends with electric vehicle technology every 6 months.Whoah.I could go on – every single career, profession, skill, trade, and knowledge set is going out of date fasterWhy is all of this happening? Because technology is coming to be the core of almost every industry, and technology is moving faster than ever before. But it’s not just that – science is moving quicker, consumer preference is changing faster, and regulatory change evolves at a rapid pace. The tools we use, the vehicles we drive, the equipment that is part of our skill set – existing things become ‘things from the olden days‘ faster while new things emerge.The fact is, we live in a whirlwind of change, and what we did before won’t cut it for what we need to do next. Constant action is needed to avoid obsolescence, regardless of our skill, profession, or role.All this happens in the context that the very nature of the organizations we work for faces far less stability than before. It’s estimated that the average lifespan of S&P 500 companies has decreased from 60 years in the 1950s to less than 20 years today. 52% of Fortune 500 companies from 2000 are now gone, largely due to digital disruption – and McKinsey research shows that the average company is being disrupted and falling out of market leadership position faster than ever before.A speaker on a stage? I need to relentlessly update my research, my story line and observations, the facts I share, and the disruptive ideas I put on the table. I need to adjust to the fact that the audience continues to change, skewing younger with a shorter attention span.IK can’t [preume that my jokes for a room of baby boomers are going to work for a bunch of twenty-year-olds. I also know that they very technology used to support my presentation is going to continue to evolve, with more video, massive LED walls, and a lot more interactive technology. I am a person living with my looming obsolescence, and reinventing because of that knowledge.Welcome to the world in which the future belongs to those who are fast!The fact is, you should presume that faster obsolescence is now the default state of almost everything – and so you should presume that you just work harder to maintain your relevance.It demands constant effort, adaptation, and reinvention.Welcome to 2025!

#5

"“Never hesitate to put curiosity into overdrive”

Be like Curious George!More on that in a bit, but first, think about the power that exists within a curious mind. If knowledge is accelerating quickly, science is moving fast, new careers are being invented and everything else is changing at a furious pace, and you want to get ahead – doesn’t it make sense to use your creativity to learn more about what’s happening?My theory has always been that a curious mind is a mind that has a healthy relationship with change, an ability to better understand the trends that will define our tomorrow, and a passion to explore new ideas. A curious mind is a sponge for discovery and a vessel for the exploration of new ideas. It’s a mind that can take necessary risks and just an overwhelming desire to better understand how to chase success.A curious mind is a powerful mind – and from that perspective, being curious is the secret weapon we’ve all been blessed with.Recognize that reality – and do more of it! That is, chasing your curiosity.Studies bear this out. A 2016 study in the scientific publication Neuron found that curiosity enhances learning and memory formation by “activating reward-related brain regions and hippocampal areas.” In other words, curiosity breeds enjoyment and fuels drive and ambition. Intuitively, that just makes sense. Curiosity has a direct impact on our skills and careers – a Harvard Business School study in 2018 demonstrated that curious employees were 34% better at creative problem-solving, and job performance ratings were 3.1x stronger than people who were not ranked high on the curiosity scale. That had a big impact on their contribution – they were also known for innovative thinking, contributing more than 2 1/2 times the idea that others.And what about the ability to deal with speed? Another recent study (“Curiosity as a Change Catalyst“) by psychologist and curiosity expert Todd Kashdan found that, during a period of organizational change, curious employees learned new systems 42% faster, reported 56% less stress during transitions, were 2.8x more likely to suggest process improvements, and built cross-functional relationships 3x faster., With over 1,200 people involved in the study., that’s a pretty resounding commentary on the importance of curiosity.Hence, curiosity.So back to Curious George – I know that curiosity has certainly fueled every single aspect of my success over time. And that’s why I’ve always found motivation in the story of Curious George – I’ve loved it from the very moment I started reading the story to my children! I relayed the story in one of these posts a few years back, and it’s worth sharing again.The series of books caused them to ask lots of questions! Why does he always get into trouble? Why does the man wear a yellow hat? Why can seagulls fly? Why does he do that?The first paragraph of the first book, though, defines a key character attribute:This is George.
He lived in Africa.
He was very happy.
But he had one fault. He was too curious.I take issue with that idea – curiosity should never be defined as a fault!Indeed, no one should ever be faulted for being too curious, because it is one of the most important attributes of successful innovation and creativity. From that perspective, Curious George should be a role model for the concept of curiosity – it’s his inquisitiveness mind that defines him, and within that, he shows several important pathways to creativity:

These are important leadership skills – the more you ask questions, examine new ideas, find new pathways, explore new ways of doing things, and generally poke around the edges of the future, the better positioned you are to expand your creative horizon. It’s precisely the area of your curiosity that you should spend more time on, not less – even if it leads you into good trouble.Otherwise, you are keeping yourself in the land of the status quo, doing the same old thing, stifling creativity through the slaughter of natural inquisitiveness. Curiosity should be embraced, not denied,Over the years, I’ve come to realize that part of the fuel that fires my passion for my work is my intense curiosity – I’ve also come to realize that thinking differently has become critical to my success! So it is with you; in a time in which business models, markets, customers, industries, and clients are changing at an ever more furious pace, thinking differently about the world around you is a powerful and important personal trait to possess. You also need to ensure that you provide for a culture of creativity within your organization so that it can evolve at a pace that the future demands of it.Creative organizations fuel a culture of curiosity and encourage their people to look for trends, signs of change, and opportunities everywhere. They know that innovation can come from tension, and that tension can come from people who don’t fit the traditional corporate mold – or who get into trouble. They establish a collaborative culture in which information sharing is expressly encouraged. They also know that success comes from embracing change, not shying away from it. Not only that, but they know that true, real, sustainable success can only come from doing things differently, and that this in and of itself requires courage because change involves risk.So do one thing to fire up your creativity – be more like Curious George!

#6

"“Be a perpetual skills architect!”

Just do stuff.Learn by doing.Chase experience.Do it again.And again.That’s been my theory for many years, and that idea will continue to carry me into 2025.That’s how you move forward in today’s fast-moving world.Think about it – with fast science, accelerating knowledge, technological change, evolving skills – there’s no time to study, precious little time for formal learning, and fleeting moments to solidify knowledge before it goes out of date. Go out, chase the knowledge, learn it, use it, and move to the next set of knowledge. Do it over again.In that way, you become a perpetual skills architect.Remember that phrase.Here’s what you need to know about navigating this transformative shift – we’re living in what I call the “7x7x7 world” – in many industries, 7 months from now, 7% of what you know will be obsolete, and in just 7 years, the entire landscape of your field could be unrecognizable.What’s your plan?You can’t outlearn this pace through traditional methods. The only viable strategy? Immerse yourself in experiential knowledge. Learning by doing.This means you need to master rapid knowledge acquisition. This relates to a fascinating pattern I’m seeing in some of my clients who have mastered the art of high-velocity learning – they’re creating what I call “experience sprints.” These are focused, intense periods of hands-on learning. Does some new problem, opportunity, challenge, or disruption emerge? Form a team, learn about the issue, take it on, build some experience around it, and tackle it before the next issue comes up. Do it again, and again. Think of it as the agile methodology applied to personal development – your learning cycles need to match the speed of change.You should also think about the idea of being in a perpetual beta mode. Do you need to learn something new? Go at it! Your first attempt isn’t version 1.0 – it’s version 0.1. That’s just a starting point in iterative knowledge acquisition – Silicon Valley has known this concept for years. The real innovation happens in versions 0.1 through 0.9 – this is where transformative learning occurs. You learn by doing. Waiting for perfection is a recipe for obsolescence.That’s what I call “iterative Intelligence” – the ability to learn, adapt, and reapply knowledge at previously impossible speeds, by repeating these steps over and over. This iterative development matters – each layer of experience builds on the previous one, compounding upon each other. More iterations mean more knowledge – more interactions lead to more experience. Each bit of experience builds up more experiential capital – and experiential capital becomes the method of moving forward.With all this, what’s the future telling us? The ability to rapidly acquire experiential knowledge is becoming the key differentiator between high-performance organizations and those at risk of disruption. I remember this observation from a CEO I worked with recently: “We don’t have a knowledge problem. We have an experience velocity problem.”Solve that problem – the future belongs to those who chase experience with relentless determination.The time to start was yesterday. The second-best time is now.That’s your future.Are you ready?

These are important leadership skills – the more you ask questions, examine new ideas, find new pathways, explore new ways of doing things, and generally poke around the edges of the future, the better positioned you are to expand your creative horizon. It’s precisely the area of your curiosity that you should spend more time on, not less – even if it leads you into good trouble.Otherwise, you are keeping yourself in the land of the status quo, doing the same old thing, stifling creativity through the slaughter of natural inquisitiveness. Curiosity should be embraced, not denied,Over the years, I’ve come to realize that part of the fuel that fires my passion for my work is my intense curiosity – I’ve also come to realize that thinking differently has become critical to my success! So it is with you; in a time in which business models, markets, customers, industries, and clients are changing at an ever more furious pace, thinking differently about the world around you is a powerful and important personal trait to possess. You also need to ensure that you provide for a culture of creativity within your organization so that it can evolve at a pace that the future demands of it.Creative organizations fuel a culture of curiosity and encourage their people to look for trends, signs of change, and opportunities everywhere. They know that innovation can come from tension, and that tension can come from people who don’t fit the traditional corporate mold – or who get into trouble. They establish a collaborative culture in which information sharing is expressly encouraged. They also know that success comes from embracing change, not shying away from it. Not only that, but they know that true, real, sustainable success can only come from doing things differently, and that this in and of itself requires courage because change involves risk.So do one thing to fire up your creativity – be more like Curious George!

#7

“Know that it’s no longer what you know – it’s that you know where to look!”

One of the biggest problems with the information age is that there is too much information!Information that many people don’t know how to navigate successfully – but mastering that skill can be the key to moving forward. I know that is a key skill that has guided me through my career so far, and one that I intend to continue to enhance, particularly as both the promise and the peril of AI-based information search becomes a part of my life.I was reminded of this reality just the other day while preparing my lists of topics for this series when I came across this social media post by a fellow who goes by the social media name MikeInTheFront. He’s a pilot of an Airbus A220 with Air Canada and often posts a mix of information about both his professional life as well as hobbies. (I would guess his social media handle goes to the announcement he might make from the flight deck: “Hi, it’s Mike in the front. I’m your pilot today.)The first part of his post noted his new responsibility with the airline:“Becoming a training captain in the new year and my motivation to read my manuals has increased dramatically for fear of being outgunned with knowledge. Time to hit the books”But it was the second comment that hit the nail on the head in terms of today’s knowledge reality:

Disclaimer: you’ll never know everything. But having good base knowledge or knowing where to find the information you need is a good start.And that right there is one of the most important skills you need in the fast-moving world – increasingly, it’s not just what you know, but increasingly, your ability to find what you don’t know.Having a good base knowledge of where to find the information you need is sometimes all you need.That skill is a key part of what I’ve referred to as just-in-time knowledge. To thrive today, you’ve got to have advanced personal knowledge and navigation skills. This doesn’t just involve being able to hit Google and do a search – it involves having multiple different information sources in your life.In my case, it involves online news research services such as Dow Jones Factiva, and in a recent addition, newspapers.com, a service that allows me to do historical research on thousands of newspapers going back decades. The Factiva banner outlines what they offer (and what I pay a significant fee for!)Global News Monitoring, Business Intelligence Platform
Identify opportunities, accelerate decisions, and manage reputation with trusted business intelligence.Get unrivaled news from 33,000 global sources on a business intelligence platform covering 200 countries in 32 languages. Factiva’s millions of corporate profiles and advanced research tools provide timely insights for informed decisions across industries and regions, and accessible on mobile or via feeds and APIs.I can’t understate how powerful this tool has been in my knowledge skills, and what a role it plays in what I offer my clients. For example, this is how I construct a search about the impact of artificial intelligence in the agriculture sector:

This is what is known as a ‘structured search’ – in this case, I’m looking to find any articles that have been tagged as being about AI, from North American information sources, that involve actual news sources, not including press releases. The line HL=(artificial intelligence or AI)? That has me looking for articles where those search terms must appear in the actual headline of the article – a way to restrict my search to potential articles of relevance. Not only that, but the article has been tagged as being very relevant (a “top story”) to the topic.With that, it’s found me 12 articles from the last year – letting me get right to the important knowledge I need to know without wading through a lot of crap. I’ll take this over Google any day!

What about your world? Think about your personal information universe – it might involve specialized medical, legal, or other professional research services that have been made available to you. In many situations, associations and companies are setting up specialized online research archives related to their mission – and if that’s a part of your world, make sure you recognize the power to be found by using them. Take the time to learn them – double down on your knowledge investment. A great doctor, lawyer, landscape architect, manufacturing engineer, or software programmer doesn’t just know the base knowledge that came with their career training – they are the master of the specialized information search tools that are a part of their professional lives.The whole issue of knowledge training also goes to taking the time to discover useful information research sources among the millions of specialized directories that are out on the WEB. I recently came across a post from Bellingcat – they are a group that specializes in what is called “Open Source Intelligence,” or OSINT. That involves the use of public information sources to undertake highly specialized online research. A recent post about their new directory summarized what they’ve made available.----Have you ever struggled to find a tool that does exactly what you need? Do you know the feeling of spending hours trying to figure out how to use a tool just to realise that the key features you are interested in are not working anymore, or that the previously free product has turned into a paid one that is more expensive than you can afford?You are not alone. More than 80 percent of open source researchers that participated in two Bellingcat surveys indicated that finding the right tools can be challenging.This is where our new Online Investigations Toolkit comes in: it not only helps you discover tools in categories like satellite imagery and maps, social media, transportation or archiving, but is also designed to help researchers learn how to use each tool by providing in-depth descriptions, common use cases and information on requirements and limitations for each toolkit entry.Most of the tools included can be used for free.Find the Right Open Source Research Tools With Bellingcat’s New Online Investigations Toolkit
September 24, 2024, OSINT----Visiting the directory they’ve established provides a treasure trove of information. For example, here’s a pathway to finding detailed corporate information online – what you won’t necessarily discover with a simple Google search.

Bottom line? You should think of the ability to find information as one of the most important skill sets that you have.
It’s worked for me – so much so that during the very early 90s, I offered a ‘Competitive Intelligence” research service – wherein I was doing online research for various private investigators, companies, and organizations. (At one time, Air Canada was a client, having me do some very detailed research related to some M&A activities!)
Some of the most successful people I’ve met have mastered the unique skill set of detailed information research. I know that in my case, it has very much defined the overall success I‘ve had throughout my career. If I’m going in to speak to an agricultural, manufacturing, legal, or other organization, I’ve got extremely detailed, specific, focused research that directly relates to them. It’s so powerful that after one talk in the agricultural sector, one fellow came up to me and asked how long I had been a farmer.
It was at that moment in time that I came to know that my search skills define me.
They should define you too – just as they seem to be defining the career trajectory of a fellow like MikeInFront.
In this acceleration economy, success isn’t about having all the answers – it’s about knowing where to find them. The organizations and individuals who master this skill will be the ones who thrive in the face of exponential change.

#8

"Build better sapiential circles”

If fast science, accelerating knowledge, experiential skills, and innovative thinking are the future, how do you make sure you can keep up and align yourself to quickly accelerating change? By building yourself better sapiential circles – the external knowledge networks that you participate in that can be used to enhance, develop, and build upon your existing knowledge set.Here’s something that’s massively transformative that we might not often think about because we are so immersed in the trend – for the last thirty years, with the Internet, we’ve seen a revolution in how knowledge moves and grows! It’s not just the explosion of new information that is occurring though – it’s about how much of it is now discovered, generated, and shared within specialized online knowledge communities. This might be a mailing list where scientists share insight involving some fast-moving discoveries; a Facebook group where farmers discuss new soil-irrigation technology; or an online forum where AI enthusiasts speak about the discoveries they are making with new AI language models.This is all the power to be found in what I call ‘sapiential circles.‘ It’s a trend that has been rapidly reshaping every industry we know, and I’m seeing it happen faster in real-time across the globe.Sapiential circles? I first wrote about the idea in my 2004 book What I Learned from Frogs in Texas, where I outlined the power of collective intelligence. I based that work on work I was doing as far back as 1987 when I was encouraging the professional services firm I worked for to build online, internal collaborative knowledge networks. I called the project Linkage – perhaps a nod to the forthcoming idea of LinkedIn.
The idea was ahead of its time, as no one quite understood what I was talking about – one of the core reasons I soon bailed out to build my solo career.The phrase ‘sapiential circle‘ itself comes from Warren Bennis, a distinguished professor at Southern California’s Marshall School of Business — he was referring to how the knowledge of a group tends to increase exponentially as new members are added to the group.
What we are witnessing in the world today is a dramatic increase in the scale, reach, and speed of human sapiential circles as a result of global connectivity. The key fact is that there is a massive power in collaborative online research, idea sharing, and collective innovation, of collaborative ideas and research in driving forward innovation and problem-solving.All of this relates to a core idea I often share from the stage – if I have an idea and you have an idea, we have two ideas. If we share those ideas, we have a movement!Imprint that idea in your mind as to what you need to do in 2025. That’s your sapiential circles!Consider the trends at work around the world.Think about what’s happening in agriculture right now. We’ve got farmers in Iowa sharing soil data with researchers in India, hobbyist farmers in Germany sharing new ideas on how they’ve hacked their tractors to do a bit of self-driving with computer specialists in Silicon Valley, and precision-farming experts sharing insight on how they are crunching massive data sets to optimize crop yields in ways we never imagined possible. This isn’t just farming anymore – it’s a global knowledge ecosystem in action!And manufacturing? This is where it gets exciting! When I talk to manufacturing leaders, they’re not just sharing CAD files anymore – they’re co-creating the future through distributed design networks and digital twin technologies. A designer in Detroit can upload a 3D printing concept, and within hours, it’s being refined by engineers in Denmark and tested in Singapore. Someone might develop some new robotic technology concept in Korea and then, after being shared online, it’s implemented on a manufacturing floor in Pennsylvania the next day. That’s the power of these sapiential circles at work!The healthcare sector is seeing the same thing! For example, we’re seeing unprecedented collaboration in drug discovery, new forms of medical diagnosis, and advancements in surgical medicine. What used to take a decade of isolated research can now happen in months through these global research networks. It’s not just faster – it’s smarter, more efficient, and more innovative than ever before. The development of vaccines during the pandemic is a testament to the extreme power of sapiential sectors at work.And don’t get me started on energy! Local communities are becoming living laboratories for smart grid innovations, as they build small, local energy microgrids based on renewables, connectivity, and batteries. Advancements are happening rapidly – a breakthrough in solar storage in Australia can be implemented in Arizona the next day. This is the future of energy innovation – faster, collaborative, and global.Software and technology? The entire global open-source software movement has forever changed the entire concept of software and hardware development. Linux itself is the dominant global collaborative software platform, built on the minds of millions of adherents and enthusiasts – a model that has been followed to build hundreds, thousands, and millions of new software and hardware products. And then there is AI. Much of what is happening today is happening in the core of knowledge-sharing hub communities such as GitHub, Hugging Face, and other collaborative networks. AI is one giant mind-laboratory, moving forward at a collaborative speed that is simply astonishing, where new developments are now occurring in minutes, hours, and days rather than months or years. Yesterday’s discovery is already today’s ancient idea.Here’s what excites me about all of these things: these aren’t just isolated examples. We’re seeing the emergence of what I call “hyper-collaborative ecosystems.” Look at projects like Folding@home – millions of people contributing their computing power to solve complex protein folding problems to fight disease. That’s not just collaboration; that’s collective intelligence on a scale we’ve never seen before!But here’s the challenge – and it’s a big one: Many organizations are still stuck in old-world thinking. They’re trying to innovate in isolation, and that’s like trying to win a Formula 1 race with a horse and buggy! The future belongs to organizations that can tap into these global networks of knowledge and expertise. It’s the velocity of idea flow that’s the game-changer. Picture a world-class engineering team in Tokyo collaborating in real-time with developers in Tel Aviv and researchers in Toronto. That’s the new reality of innovation – and if an organization doesn’t have effective internal knowledge collaborative networks, it’s out of the game.This isn’t just about sharing information; it’s about the exponential power of networked intelligence – the power of sapiential circles. The implications are profound. Every organization needs to ask itself: Are we tapped into these rapidly expanding circles of knowledge? Are we leveraging the collective intelligence that’s now at our fingertips? If you’re not, you’re already falling behind.Collaborative research allows for a diversity of perspectives and experiences, which can lead to more innovative solutions. By bringing together individuals with different backgrounds and skill sets, collaborative teams can approach challenges from multiple angles and generate a wider range of ideas. Remember this: In today’s world, the most powerful innovations don’t come from lone geniuses in labs – they come from these ever-expanding circles of shared wisdom. The organizations that understand this and act on it will be the ones shaping the future.What are the personal implications for you in 2025?Think about it this way – we now have a global brain trust at our fingertips, but only if you know how to plug into it. Focus on that in 2025 because that can be one of your most important knowledge resources.Part of the art is knowing where to look. An interesting trend that is unfolding at this very moment is that massive sapiential circles are now reforming and re-establishing themselves on BlueSky – it’s rapidly emerged as the new dominant platform for collaborative intelligence. Entire scientific, meteorological, and other areas of specialized knowledge are reforming in real-time on the network, doing so to avoid the toxic hate mess that Twitter has become. If you aren’t yet there, get there fast!Bottom line? The future is rushing at us faster than ever, and these collaborative networks or sapiential circles are the rocket fuel of innovative thinking and knowledge generation. Tomorrow is being co-created by millions of connected minds right now – are you a participant? Are you ready to harness this power? Because if you’re not actively expanding your sapiential circles, you’re already falling behind!Remember this simple fact: In today’s world, innovation isn’t just about what you know – it’s about how quickly you can tap into what everyone knows.

#9

"Find your niche. Be the specialist that others seek.”

When I went out on my own back in 1989, I never presumed that the potential market for my unique way of thinking would be the small geographic radius around me.I presumed it was the world.Let me take you back to 1987 – I’m reading the New York Times, and BAM! There it is: “Tomorrow’s Company Won’t Have Walls.” It’s a prediction about the organization of the future, and it captured my imagination, arguing that specialized, niche knowledge was the way of tomorrow. Looking back, it was a concise overview of today’s modern organization – one that is based on access to specialized niche knowledge, wherever it might be.The predictive power of this article still resonates with me today. Fast forward through decades of disruption, and that prediction wasn’t just right – it was revolutionary! The fact is, we’re living in the tomorrow predicted in that article of yesterday, with the reality being that today’s wall-free companies need wall-free experts who can transcend traditional boundaries.That’s a powerful reality.Think about it: In a world where organizations are fluid, virtual, and borderless, your expertise can be global, and demand-oriented in reality. We are now living in what might be called the ‘expertise economy‘ – one that involves absolutely massive hyper-specialization. With knowledge exploding, no one can ever know everything there is to know, and so there are only a few people who know the increasingly narrow niches of knowledge that others need to know.That’s your niche.Be one of those individuals, and your market is the world.The fact is, the future is screaming at us, and here’s what it’s saying: “The era of the generalist is over.” In this era of exponential change, the real winners are those who drill deep into their unique expertise zones and own them. In this world that involves a tsunami of information, who rises to the top? The specialists. The niche experts. The focused innovators who know exactly where their genius lies and aren’t afraid to double down on it.Let me share something transformative for me: Back in ’88, a Myers-Briggs assessment hit me with a truth bomb – I was fundamentally different from my colleagues. I didn’t fit the mold. I thought differently. I was unique. I had skills that were different, niche, and very future-oriented. And that maybe, I was told, my career path lay within something behind my current professional designation.Instead of seeing this as a career killer, I saw it as my rocket fuel! Fast forward to today, and that very uniqueness has put me in rooms with NASA visionaries discussing the commercialization of space and PGA leaders reimagining golf for the tech generation. I went from being an accountant to becoming a globally recognized futurist. What a transition!What does this mean for you? First, the world is the market for hyper-skills – and that means that your market is the world. That also means pricing power – which is itself a niche power. When you’re the go-to expert in your space, you don’t compete on price – you command it. You own it. The future belongs to those who price based on unique expertise, not commodity skills.Second, in this global world, understand that people will seek you out if you work hard enough on your niche brand – double down on being a specialist and learn how to market yourself. The fact is, companies today aren’t looking for generic knowledge – they’re hunting for deep, transformative insights that can only come from someone who lives and breathes their specific industry challenges.Third, recognize you can build a very successful brand around your niche knowledge. In this hyperconnected world, specialist reputation compounds like digital currency. You don’t want to be known as a person who knows a little about everything – you want to be someone who knows a lot about one thing. In my case, I’ve developed a global reputation in which I’m known for being able to dig deep into complex trends and translate them into actionable futures at a strategic leadership level. That’s powerful stuff.Here’s your innovation imperative: Stop trying to be everything to everyone. Stop trying to be like everyone else. Be yourself. The future rewards the focused specialist who can say, “This is my space. This is where I excel. I own it. Everything else is noise.”And last but not least, remember where all of this goes in the future: In a world of algorithmic knowledge and AI generalists, human expertise becomes MORE valuable, not less. But only if it’s focused, deep, and uniquely YOU.The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed among the specialists yet.Will you be one of them?Get ready for your future. Find your niche. Own your expertise.Align to tomorrow, because it’s already here..That’s not just advice – that’s your survival strategy for the next decade of disruption.Are you ready to embrace it?

#10

"Always remember that procrastination is just slow-motion failure.”

Be action-oriented.Do things.Do them now.Don’t wait.These are the lessons I learned along the way, and as things get even faster every moment, they are more important than ever before. The fact is, in a world where change accelerates exponentially, your biggest risk isn’t failure – it’s hesitation.Why do you think I have books with the titles The Future Belongs to Those Who are Fast; Ready, Set Done; and Think Big, Start Small, Scale Fast? I haven’t gone with those titles simply because I think it’s a cool framework – it comes from what I have seen as the key issue for my global clients for the last 30 years. People and organizations are overwhelmed with speed, bewildered by accelerating change, and sometimes, withering with fear at the velocity of tomorrow.And they’ve brought me in to talk to them about moving fast.So, let me oblige with my thoughts.Think about this: every morning, you wake up to a world that’s fundamentally different from yesterday. New technologies have emerged, market dynamics have shifted, and knowledge has forever changed. Are you changing with all of this, or are you waiting for the ‘right time,’ clarity on direction, or courage for your action?Always remember this – There is no right time, there is only now. You can’t wait for clarity – because you’ll be waiting forever. And you’ll never have more courage simply by thinking about it – you just need to do it.Here’s your new reality playbook:Velocity beats perfection (at least most of the time). Stop seeking perfect information – it doesn’t exist. The winners in today’s economy aren’t the ones with the best plans; they’re the ones who dive in, figure it out, and scale fast. It’s not about having all the answers; it’s about moving while others are still planning.Use fear as a trigger to move forward – not to freeze. Fear should be your compass pointing you to tomorrow, rather than a stop sign holding you back. That knot in your stomach? Uncertainty is keeping you up at night? That’s not a warning sign – that’s your opportunity radar! When you feel fear, that’s your signal to accelerate, not brake. Remember: fear is a liar. Courage is your new currency in the economy of tomorrow.Break the conspiracy of your comfort zone. Your comfort zone isn’t your friend – it’s your biggest threat. In a world of perpetual disruption, the most dangerous place to be is to be where you’ve always been. The future belongs to the change-makers, not the change-waiters. Are you charging at change to shape it, or are you letting change happen to you? Think about it this way – comfort zones can be death zones if you let them overtake your potential for opportunity!Forget planning, start doing. The future isn’t waiting for your perfect plan. It’s not waiting for your comfort zone to expand. And it’s certainly not waiting for your fear to subside. The only sustainable strategy is to act fast upon the unknown. Volatility rules this moment in time, and will be even more challenging in 2025. Accept that, and move forward.Kick your speed up a notch. While others are still debating the perfect moment to act, the future-ready are already gathering real-world data from their third iteration. Moving forward with your innovative idea shouldn’t be some sort of annual event or carefully planned project- it should be your hourly heartbeat. Experiment rapidly, gather insights on the fly, and whatever you do: fail fast, recover faster, and adapt even quicker.Stop it with the grandiose structures. Forget the idea of the 500-page strategic plan. The future demands bold thinking coupled with lightning deployment. While others are perfecting their PowerPoints, you should be running your third pilot program. Your mantra? Act decisively with imperfect information, then scale rapidly as opportunities emerge.Here’s what you should do: a 15-point plan for action.

The future doesn’t wait for your comfort, your certainty, or your careful planning. The only sustainable advantage at this moment in time is your ability to change faster than your competition, to learn faster than others do, and to act decisively in the face of uncertainty.Remember: In a world where the only constant is exponential change, the biggest risk isn’t acting on what you don’t know – it’s waiting until you do know.Procrastination is just slow-motion failure hidden in a brilliant disguise.By then, it’s too late.Your future starts now.Are you ready to get going?

#11

"Always remember that the future is not just a destination, it’s a navigational beacon!”

I learned long ago that the future just isn’t a place we go – it’s a direction we should always be focused on! It’s not a place that we arrive at – it’s a series of events that we strive to achieve to get to the opportunities it presents. It’s not just a place that we arrive at and spend our time – it’s an elusive target that is always out there, begging us to participate in what it offers.That’s why you need to stop thinking about the future as just a destination – you need to think about it as a direction to take! It’s a lighthouse beacon screaming out to you from the fog, providing you desperately needed insight on where you need to go to avoid the hazards of disruption, the challenges of the fast currents of relentless changes, and the relentless swells of ongoing volatility that it tosses your way.Follow the guidance it is offering you.I can’t emphasize enough that shaping your future is more about adopting a particular way of thinking rather than just reaching a specific goal. This way of thinking involves several key elements that are critical to what you do: it’s a directional mindset that has several key characteristics.

By cultivating a directional mindset – one of action, not stagnation – you become more than just a passive passenger on the journey to the future. You become an active participant, a navigator, and a creator, shaping your destiny before others shape it for you.Over the years, I’ve seen this mindset in some of the more successful Fortune 500 executives and organizations I’ve spent time with worldwide. Successful future-oriented leaders and companies share a common trait – they understand that thriving tomorrow requires more than just planning for a fixed endpoint – they are focused equally on the voyage that is involved in getting there.When I spend time with major manufacturing clients, I see many who are fixated on “the way we’ve always done things” who then get blindsided by disruption. The winners? I see that they’re busy scanning the horizon, tracking emerging technologies and trends, and positioning themselves to capitalize on what’s next. They invest a lot of time in building the foundation for the voyage, knowing that it involves a lot of specific steps, rather than just some grandiose one-time project.I’ve also seen it with a few healthcare organizations. One hospital network I advised completely reimagined its care delivery model around virtual health solutions long before COVID hit. When the pandemic arrived, they were ready while others scrambled – because they knew that the future was telling that the virtualization of healthcare was a clear destination and that it would involve a lot of investment to get there.The most innovative organizations I work with cultivate what I call “opportunity radar” – they’re constantly sensing and responding to weak signals of change. A retail client detected early signs of the subscription economy trend and launched a wildly successful subscription box service while competitors watched from the sidelines. Again, when the volatility of the pandemic hit, they were better positioned than their competitors.A major energy company I spent time with didn’t just talk about renewable energy disruption – they committed billions to transforming their infrastructure and talent base. They challenged their business model because they could see that we are shifting to a world in which local energy microgrids are becoming a key part of the overall energy grid. They did everything they could to shift their thinking to this reality and act upon the many steps it would take to get there – so much so that this architecture became their mindset, not just a destination.Notice a trend? All of these organizations had a common leadership mindset – you can’t just think about the future, you have to act on it as a series of steps to take. The companies that own tomorrow understand that the path forward isn’t linear – it’s a routine. I tell my clients: develop your change muscles. Build your ability to pivot, experiment, and course-correct as the landscape shifts. The future belongs to the agile.The organizations that internalize this directional mindset – that watch the navigational beacon that is tomorrow – don’t just survive in a world of exponential change – they thrive on it.They become the disruptors rather than the disrupted.The question is: are you cultivating the directional mindset needed to shape it, rather than be shaped by it?

#12

""Align to reality. Ignore the hype!".”

When does the future happen?The best answer I can give you is this: It won't happen as quickly as you think and yet is unfolding extremely fast, and even so, might also happen suddenly, all at once.Makes sense?That idea goes to the heart of the conundrum of timing the future, as best encapsulated in a phrase I often use on stage, attributed to Kevin Kelly, the founder of Wired: "The future happens slowly, and then, all at once." That concept has guided me into everything having to do with what I do as a futurist since, well, I became someone whom others sought advice from on what will happen next.I know I've shared the issue of hype here before, but it is such an important issue that I had to put it on my list of things I will think about as I go into 2025. You should too. Understanding particular trends not only the trends themselves, but very much the timing of those trends. If we can better understand that timing, we can better understand the future.Let's think about that in the context of the topic-du-jour, artificial intelligence. Has it run its course? Is it real? Is it hype? How do we judge it's reality?That's a good question, and in a short answer, both yes and no and maybe.One of the most important tools I use on stage when helping folks understand tomorrow is the Gartner Hype Cycle. For many years, it was released by a research firm as a way to guide people through the inevitable path that any particular trend follows.Every single trend since the beginning of time goes through the curve. The trend appears - the Innovation Trigger which sets it free. Eventually, everyone gets overly excited about the trend, and the hype becomes intense as we hit the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Eventually, though, people see through the hype, and realize it will take a lot of effort to see any real benefit from the trend - and so we hit the Trough of Disillusionment.  We then take some time to learn about it, experiment with it, and go through the Slope of Enlightenment*.Bottom line? We finally learn to take full advantage of it as the trend matures - we get to the Plateau of Productivity.

Every single trend I have ever been involved with has gone through the curve. Take e-commerce – I wrote a book in 1998, when the excitement of online shopping as seen with dot.com companies was at its peak. Selling Online: How to Become a Successful E-commerce Merchant took apart the issue of how to build an online store, as visions of riches inhabited the minds of everyone who was at the Peak of Inflated Expectations with the idea.Even so, the book cautioned people not to get overly excited with the potential for success, which certainly proved to be prescient. We soon saw the ‘great dot.com collapse’ and a stock market downturn that was breathtaking in its scope, as people came to realize that companies that had no sales, no revenue, and not a whisper of a profit were not viable businesses. Whoops! We crashed into the Trough of Disillusionment. It took years before we hit the Slope of Enlightenment, and with the pandemic, the idea of online shopping finally hit the Plateau of Productivity.Back to AI. Some of the promises and perils are certainly overstated (“Everyone is going to lose their job to an AI!”), and in my view and others, we are clearly at the Peak of Inflated Expectations with AI from a general perspective. There is just too much hype, too many false promises, and too much venture capital chasing too few solid business models.What happens in the real world with the trend? I met with over a hundred CEOs of software companies in Houston in the fall of 2024 and shared this perspective. As expected, many were caught up in the excitement of the peak of inflated expectations and weren’t too fond of my words. Some were rather scathing in their criticism of what I said! I stand by my words, though, and fully expect that many of them will have crashed to Earth in terms of their now realistic understanding of how AI might be integrated into their products.My view? For quite some time, I’ve been of the view that here’s where we are with AI (artificial intelligence) as a generalized trend.

I’ve recently been reading the work of a fellow named Ed Zitron, If you want a deeper understanding of where we might be with AI, read his most recent post, Godot Isn’t Making It. The opening is a hell of a read!I have been warning you for the best part of a year that generative AI has no killer apps and had no way of justifying its valuations (February), that generative AI had already peaked (March), and I have pleaded with people to consider an eventuality where the jump from GPT-4 to GPT-5 was not significant, in part due to a lack of training data (April).I shared concerns in July that the transformer-based-architecture underpinning generative AI was a dead end, and that there were few ways we’d progress past the products we’d already seen, in part due to both the limits of training data and the limits of models that use said training data. In August, I summarized the Pale Horses of the AI Apocalypse — events, many that have since come to pass, that would signify that the end is indeed nigh — and again added that GPT-5 would likely “not change the game enough to matter, let alone [add] a new architecture to build future (and more capable) models on.”Throughout these pieces I have repeatedly made the point that — separate to any lack of a core value proposition, training data drought, or unsustainable economics — generative AI is a dead end due to the limitations of probabilistic models that hallucinate, where they authoritatively state things that aren’t true. The hallucination problem is one that is nowhere closer to being solved — and, at least with the current technology — may never go away, and it makes it a non-starter for a great many business tasks, where you need a high level of reliability.*To say he is a skeptic, that’s an understatement. Others fall in the same camp, while others disagree with his view.For me? It’s all about the hype cycle baby! Why is that? Because I’ve long been putting into perspective for my clients that AI is not one thing – it is many things – and different aspects of AI are at different points on the curve.

Take a look at Computer Vision – that’s where AI is having a dramatic impact on healthcare (disease identification), manufacturing (product defect inspection), and other industries. Or look at Autonomous Vehicles – and consider what is happening in agriculture as we move to a world of 24-hour farming based on intelligent, self-operating tractor technology.In my case, I’m very business with leadership keynotes that outline the AI opportunity in the short, medium, and long term, without the hype. My AI-focused Web site, JimCarroll.ai, continues to build out with overviews of the different clients I’m speaking to about the role of AI in manufacturing, insurance, agriculture, and other industries.

It’s easy to think that the AI reality has run its course as we come to mark 2 years since the arrival of ChatGPT – and yet, there are many clients actively working beyond the hype cycle, knowing that much of AI involves ‘the long-game’ – the issue I raised in point #1 in this series.That’s what I’m covering with the trend, with talks that are focused on many other aspects of AI, all of which involve ‘the long game.’ This includes topics like these:

Here’s the thing – AI is at the heart of all these trends. And yet, most of these issues are medium and long-term trends.ChatGPT and LLM’s? Massive new opportunities are unfolding, but much of the hype (“Everyone is going to lose their job to an AI!”) is overstated; many of the current business startups will crash and burn; and most organizations and people are still struggling to find a viable business case. In that way, Generative AI and LLM’s are the e-commerce of the AI era.I recently shared this post with my speaker bureau partners about what I see happening with AI as a speaking topic:The point of all this is that while you might be a) thinking that AI as a topic has run its course and b) it’s time to move on to the next hot topic, you’ll be missing out on big opportunities as clients begin to focus on the next wave of AI technologies, as we go through the Trough of Disillusionment into the Slope of Enlightenment.What’s happening with an AI is a perfect example of what happens with every single trend that has entered into our lives – it evolves both quickly and slowly at the same time, and then, happens all at once.Understand that, and you’ve got a critical bit of insight that will carry you into 2025!

#13

"Fail on your own terms”

Fail forward!I don’t know how many times I’ve been told that my plans were doomed to fail!When I first made the massive career transition in the 80s to becoming someone focused on emerging technology and connectivity – what would later become the Internet – I was told I would fail. That didn’t happen, because I was aligned to play a big role in one of the most significant technological developments of our time. When I set out to write my first Internet-related book in 1993, I was told it would fail because no one would buy it! It went on to become a national #1 bestseller and led to a career in which I was involved with 34 books that sold well over a million copies. When I decided, as a Canadian, to focus on the US for my speaking activities, I was told I would fail – and went on to be represented as I am to this day by the major speaker bureaus within the industry.If one of my phrases is that ‘the future belongs to those who are fast,’ the other might be that it belongs to those who fail forward! Those who fail on their terms by deciding to move forward, and ignoring the detractors. In today’s hyper-accelerated world of relentless innovation, here’s your wake-up call: the only true failure is letting others define your limitations. The future demands audacious thinking, and history shows us that the most transformative innovators weren’t afraid to fail spectacularly – they were afraid of not trying at all.There are lots of people throughout history who have refused to let others tell them that their ideas won’t work. Think about it: James Dyson created 5,126 failed prototypes before revolutionizing the vacuum industry. That’s not just persistence – that’s the DNA of innovation! When people told him to give up, he saw each failure as a data point leading to success. This is the mindset that shapes tomorrow’s success stories – he was failing on his terms.He’s not alone – Rovio developed 51 games before Angry Birds soared to success. Colonel Sanders heard “no” 1,009 times before his recipe changed the fast-food landscape. Walt Disney was fired for “lacking imagination.” Jeff Bezos was mocked for selling books online. Howard Schultz of Starbucks was rejected by 242 investors. Today, their “impossible” ideas have reshaped entire industries.Here’s my bit of critical insight for 2025: you must claim ownership of your future trajectory. The bitter truth? Most people would rather criticize innovation than create it. One thing I’ve learned is that those who say “it can’t be done” are simply broadcasting their limitations. Ignore them. When they say “impossible,” translate that to “I’m afraid to try.” Their resistance is your roadmap to opportunity When someone says you’re doomed to fail, recognize it for what it is: evidence that you’re challenging the status quo. In today’s exponential times, that’s exactly where you need to be.Your mission? Embrace failure as your innovation laboratory. Own your setbacks as badges of courage. Recognize the importance of persistence, resilience, and embracing failure as a necessary step toward success. Embrace your failure – because it’s a critical step toward a successful reinvention. Learn from your losses, because they will teach you valuable lessons on how to win. Always remember that before you get good at any skill, you’ll be bad at it.Keep going! Make ‘ignoring negativity‘ a core part of your being. Ignore those who say the future is too hard, that it can’t be done, or that you won’t succeed. Prove wrong those who say they are doomed to fail. Always know that many people around you would rather complain about a great idea than come up with their own – tune out that negativity and focus on what you believe.This means taking ownership of your future – and never letting others dictate how you should live it. Live your truth rather than hide in a life of lies.I’ve covered these thoughts with many quotes in my Daily Inspiration for the last 8 years: here are just a few of them.

And my favorite?“Some of your worst days can always become the first days of some of the best days of the rest of your life!”Live that truth – by failing forward, and failing on your own terms.

#14

"In the absence of clarity, choose ambition”

Here’s what I know about 2025 – it’s going to be volatile, disruptive, and transformative. What I don’t know could fill volumes.And that’s exactly the point.I’ve spent decades advising global organizations and Fortune 500 companies on navigating uncertainty. The single biggest barrier to success I’ve witnessed isn’t technological disruption or market volatility – it’s the paralysis that comes from waiting for clarity that will never arrive. You know the phrase I use – ‘aggressive indecision’ is often the biggest problem that people and organizations face.Let me be blunt: In 2025, clarity is not an option — indecision is going to be everywhere — and that attitude is going to be all around you.There’s no doubt that there will be a lot of opportunitieswith innovation and fast-moving trends. Go back to point #2 in this series – ‘Follow the science‘. 2025 will be all about opportunity – and yet, a lot of people will be frozen into inaction.You’ll have to figure out how to deal with this every single day.I’m already seeing this with my own business – the number of clients who are in various states of indecisive decision-making around events in 2025 is simply staggering. At one moment, they seem like they are moving forward, and then, someone else on the team seems to pull them back. I’ve had a few exploratory conference calls where someone has actually said, “We want to see what happens in 2025 before we figure out what we are going to do.” Seriously. How can you navigate a complex world with a mindset like that?This is where my mantra becomes your lifeline: “In the absence of clarity, choose ambition.”In other words, don’t wait to know what’s going to happen before moving forward – just make sure you move forward. In my case, I’m spending time on a lot of side projects, including working towards getting my latest book towards the finish line, undertaking some critical research that I need to do, and doubling down on the exploration of key knowledge and skills tools.In other words, I’m moving forward.We’ve seen organizations move forward in the absence of clarity throughout history.Think about it. Amazon didn’t wait for clarity about online shopping behavior before revolutionizing retail. SpaceX didn’t wait for certainty about reusable rockets before transforming space exploration. Netflix didn’t wait for perfect clarity about streaming technology before dismantling the traditional TV and movie distribution model. Moderna didn’t wait for traditional vaccine development timelines before pioneering mRNA technology. Uber didn’t wait for regulatory clarity before reimagining urban transportation.All of these situations – and many more – teach us that ambitious action in the face of uncertainty leads to transformative results.Here’s what choosing ambition looks like in practice: When you can’t predict the outcome, double down on the scale of your goals. When you can’t see the entire staircase, take the first step anyway – just make it a bold one. When the future is foggy, let your ambition be your North Star. As we barrel toward 2025, remember this: The biggest risk isn’t making the wrong decision – it’s making no decision at all.“Wait and see” is the new recipe for obsolescence. Your competitors aren’t waiting for clarity. Your customers aren’t waiting for clarity. The future isn’t waiting for clarity.So here’s your challenge for 2025: Embrace the fog of uncertainty and let your ambitious goals you through it. Keep your long-term goal in mind even when you can barely see five months ahead. Launch that revolutionary product even when the market signals are mixed. Transform your organization even when the end state isn’t crystal clear.Because in the end, clarity doesn’t create success – ambition does.The future belongs to those who choose ambition in the absence of clarity.Will you be one of them?

#15

"Stop doing the things that make you marginal”

One of the most important things we should do every day is to stop doing the things we often do every day – the things that lead us to mediocrity, poor performance or not-so-great results.We’ve got to stop being marginal in terms of what we do, how we think, and how we act.I started out building a list of the things we should do, the way we should act, and the mindset we should carry through our day.And then I thought, why not turn it around? Why not emphasize the point I’m trying to make by providing the ultimate guide of what people do to ensure a spectacular descent into mediocrity? I started building a list and got to point #10, and began to realize it would take quite a bit of work. So why not let an AI help out? I’ve fed all 3,500 Daily Inspiration posts to Notebook LLM from Google and asked it to help me fill out the list.Essentially, it took 8 years of motivational, inspirational, change -oriented guidance and flipped it on its head.I even had it prepare a little bit of a de-motivational intro:

In a world racing forward at breakneck speed, where innovation and adaptability reign supreme, you too can master the art of becoming perfectly forgettable. While others waste their time pushing boundaries and challenging conventional wisdom, this comprehensive collection of self-sabotaging behaviors will guarantee your place in the vast sea of the unremarkable. So sit back, relax, and prepare to embrace these time-tested strategies for achieving absolute averageness. After all, why strive for excellence when mediocrity is so comfortably within reach?

Brilliant!And so here we go – here’s your list!101 Ways to Live a Mediocre Life:

What’s the takeaway with all this?The path to mediocrity is paved with comfortable choices and missed opportunities.Each item on this list represents a small surrender, a tiny compromise that collectively ensures your journey to irrelevance.But here’s the plot twist: now that you see these behaviors laid bare in their full satirical glory, you face a choice. You can either use this list as your blueprint for blending into the background and living a marginal life – or you can treat it as your anti-manual – a stark reminder of every instinct you need to fight against to remain relevant in a world that rewards the bold, the innovative, and the perpetually curious.The future belongs to those who refuse to make peace with their own limitations.So, which side of history will you choose to stand on?

#16

"Never let anyone dull your shinel”

Ignore the critics!Or at least, the ones. who don’t offer any insight of substance.That’s something I will continue to do into 2025, and as we barrel into a year that promises to be unlike many others, it’s something you should consider too.Let me share something I’ve learned about dealing with criticism throughout my career – take in the good criticism, and ignore the other stuff! It’s fascinating how good criticism – honest insight that can hide valuable wisdom, even when it doesn’t feel that way – can help to move you forward. At the same time, it’s stunning how easily it is for us to take in and internalize the hateful, agenda-oriented, anger-driven barbs that you might get along the way – and which cause us real damage.Always keep in mind that you are always dealing with two types of critics. Some will share harsh feedback that contains insight that can help us grow. At the same time, others will share criticism that should be ignored, because it’s agenda-oriented, or is driven by fear, jealousy, or other emotions. The key is learning the art of knowing which is which, and that’s the key: you need to be selective about which criticism you take to heart.Over the years, I’ve watched too many talented people get derailed by letting others’ opinions overshadow their vision, ideas, and beliefs. I also know that I’ve often taken too much criticism to heart when I shouldn’t have – as someone who spends time on a stage as a key part of their work, I’ve often had to learn the hard way how to take in what matters and ignore the rest!Here’s the key thing that I’ve learned and what I’ve noticed about innovators and change-makers, don’t take it to heart. Often they are criticizing change, and not you. That’s because if you’re doing something truly groundbreaking, criticism is almost inevitable. Why? Because you’re challenging the status quo, and that makes some people uncomfortable. Often, they won’t know how to react and will lash out because you represent the thing they fear the most – change. But here’s my advice: don’t waste energy arguing with them – often, there is absolutely no upside. Accept their fear for who they are, and move on.Another key way to manage criticism is to avoid the critics who offer useless critical insight! One of the most important lessons I’ve learned is about the people you surround yourself with. I cannot stress this enough – find those who lift you, rather than those who will drag you down. Spend time with those who see possibilities where others see problems. These are the people who will help you maintain that crucial positive mindset that drives creativity and innovation forward. You’ll also find a huge difference between the constructive criticism they might offer vs. the destructive criticism of others.This has become particularly important in the often toxic world which has become a core part of some social networks. Voyage into the sludge. that is Twitter or X or whatever it’s called with a positive message, and you will soon be subjected to the scorn and criticism of those who seem to take joy in offering up a regular stream of hateful criticism. Most of it is useless in terms of being something to build upon. There’s no upside – none – so why bother?You should also put the issue of criticism into the light of science. Studies on the idea of defensive processing” found that people who maintain a strong sense of self-worth are better able to process criticism constructively, rather than needing to ignore it completely. That’s because they excel at the idea of how to use criticism to their advantage. Think of criticism this way – your self-identity is a skyscraper. Each floor represents a different aspect of who you are – your professional abilities, your relationships, and your creative talents.What the research found is ts that when you keep the whole building strong and well-maintained, a crack in one floor doesn’t threaten the entire structure. You become better equipped to repair that crack because you’re not afraid the whole building will collapse. Overall, the study found that we can condition ourselves to easily manage criticism and turn it into a strength.The core conclusion was that when people took a moment to reflect on what truly mattered to them – their deep personal values, their meaningful relationships, their core strengths – they didn’t just survive criticism; they thrived on it!Remember, your unique perspective and talents are exactly what we need in this rapidly changing world. Don’t let anyone’s criticism dim that light.I’ve seen too many brilliant ideas never reach their potential because someone listened to the wrong voices.

#17

"Reverse your setbacks sooner & find your redemption faster!”l”

Never let a setback set you back!It’s all about moving forward, not back. Do that faster when things go wrong.Perseverance. determination, fortitude, persistence, resolve. These are YOUR words. These are the words that define the attitude you need to go in the right direction.If you are going to be an innovator, someone living into tomorrow rather than yesterday, you know that there are people who will dismiss what it is you invent, the ideas you create, the initiatives you chase. If you are a disruptor, anti-disruptors will battle your disruption. If you imagine great things for the future, you will be surrounded by them who will work to belittle you with their small ideas. If you seek to create yourself a better future, others will seek to destroy it.If you don’t guard against this reality, you won’t have what you need to see it through.“I didn’t get it right the first time” should be a goal; “Let me give it another shot” is a part of your story; “I need to try again” is a key part of your vocabulary.In other words, sometimes getting a redo is a part of the process. If you are seeking to move forward, sometimes failure will get in your way, and you need to be determined to push on through it. Here’s a phrase you have probably heard – “fail early, fail often!” If not, file that one away – I use it a lot on stage.It’s the same with our personal efforts, whether finding a new job, pursuing a new career, or taking on some new type of challenge. The path to success might not always be an easy one, but it’s a necessary one. The very act of taking each step forward is an ultimate part of that overall success.After all, nothing great was ever achieved by giving up!Let me transform this into a forward-looking manifesto about turning setbacks into opportunities.

In a faster future, the simple fact is this – those who will thrive are those who can turn their stumbles into sprints, their failures into fuel, their setbacks into setups for their next great leap forward. Don’t waste time looking in the rearview mirror – your greatest achievements are waiting in the windshield view ahead.Remember: at this very moment, you’re transitioning from who you were into who you’re becoming. Make that your reality. Make it purposeful. Make it fast. The redemption you seek isn’t hiding in careful planning or cautious steps – it’s waiting for you in moving forward – fast!The simple fact is this – the future doesn’t belong to those who never fail – it belongs to those who fail faster, learn faster, and transform faster than everyone else. In that context, your setbacks aren’t your destiny – they’re your launching pad to something greater.

#18

"Beware the dangerous illusion of invincibility!”

You are invincible — until you’re not!That’s probably one of the most important observations I’ve made in my career, and I continue to see it to this day. I’ve come to believe that it will probably be one of the most prevalent attitudes going into 2025, particularly with those who are far too giddy with their recent run of success. Here’s what I know — invincible often precedes an inevitable fall from grace.It’’s a truth, though, that it’s easy for people to assume too much when they’ve had too much success — that everything is guaranteed, the future is a slam dunk, and that the road forward is an easy one. Nothing could be further from the truth. A feeling of invincibility is usually one of the most forthcoming signs of the emergence of an impending turnaround in fortune. The fact is, success can breed failure.Over the years, I’ve had numerous observations in my posts about the danger of believing you are invincible. “Invincibility is a myth“. “Invincibility? It’s a gateway drug to potential failure!”. “A belief that your success is guaranteed, that you are immune to disruption, and that what worked for you in the past will continue working for you in the future : these FICTIONS are HARMFUL!”And my favourite: “The only answer to your belief that you are invincible? LOL!”I’ve long observed a dangerous pattern that emerges when organizations and individuals achieve success and slide into invincibility Here’s what I know.

Going into 2025, the reality is this: in today’s rapidly changing world, feeling invincible isn’t just dangerous – it’s potentially fatal to your future success. The most resilient organizations and individuals I’ve encountered maintain a healthy sense of vulnerability. They understand that success is never permanent and that tomorrow’s challenges require constant vigilance, adaptability, and humility.Remember: the moment you think you’re invincible is the moment you become most vulnerable. Keep your guard up, stay humble, and never stop preparing for tomorrow’s challenges.After all, in a world of constant change, the only real security comes from accepting our inherent vulnerability.What steps will you take into 2025 to challenge your own sense of invincibility?

#19

"Dare to be different!”

Never be like everyone else. That should be your goal in 2025!Over the years in my blog posts, I’ve written extensively about how uniqueness drives innovation and shapes tomorrow. And at this moment, my latest book is in the editing process – we’ve still got a long way to go. The title keeps flipping around: right now, I’ve settled on “Being Unique: Simple Strategies for Finding Your Creativity, Accelerating Innovation, and Getting to Your Future Faster!”The entire premise of the book rests on the idea that being different matters. For a time, each of my daily posts was devoted to the idea of uniqueness, and much of that material has made its way into a chapter. The core message remains unchanged: the future belongs to those willing to think and act differently.Why is that?

Above all – no one deserves to be like everyone else!Being unique isn’t just about being different – it’s about having the freedom to explore new ideas and chase tomorrow. One of the most important things that we can carry into 2025 is working to develop our unique mindsets by embracing ambiguity, playing with our curiosity, and remaining hyperaware of emerging trends. That will allow us to develop a distinctive perspective – which can be our greatest asset in navigating the future.The future has always belonged to those who think differently. As we face increasingly complex challenges and opportunities, this truth becomes even more important. Your unique perspective, your willingness to challenge norms, and your courage to be different – these are the tools that will help you not just survive in the future, but actively shape it.Interested in learning more about this uniqueness path? Here’s an audio exploration of what I’ve been writing about – I fed all of my Being Unique posts to Google’s NotebookLLM, and had it prepare an audio podcast about the idea of being unique.

Listening to it – I even got excited about the power of uniqueness!What unique perspective will you bring to tomorrow – and into 2025?

#20

"Don’t be intimidated by the size of your dreams”

Don’t think small. And at the same time, don’t be intimidated by the possibilities of thinking big. That too should be your goal in 2025!Throughout my career as a futurist, I’ve consistently observed one critical factor that separates those who shape the future from those who merely inhabit it: the size of their dreams. They don’t live day by day thinking about the small, marginal things they might accomplish – they are focused on the bigger opportunities they might chase. They don’t view tomorrow as a time full of a few small opportunities here and there- they the future as something full of massive, wonderful potential opportunities. They don’t restrict their thinking to small goals and small plans, but rather, always seem to ask themselves – what big ideas am I not yet thinking about?Like many, I believe that we live in a time of transformative opportunity, and those who are willing to chase them are those who will thrive. What do you need to be in this mindset? A few things:

Here’s what I’ve learned about the future: it’s not just about having ambitious goals – it’s about expanding your vision of what’s possible. That’s why I keep going back to my mantra – my “Think Big, Start Small, Scale Fast” principle. If you think about it, it’s a framework that acknowledges the audacity of big dreams while providing a practical path to achieving them.The future belongs to those who dare to dream beyond their current reality. Your dreams should make you uncomfortable – if they don’t, they’re probably not big enough. After all, in a world of unprecedented change and opportunity, the biggest risk isn’t dreaming too big – it’s dreaming too small!That should always be in the back of your mind through 2025.

#21

"Do things that make you better”

Be grateful. Be gracious. Be helpful. Be considerate.Above all, be kind.Given the world that surrounds us at this moment in time, I don’t believe that 2025 is going to be one that will be memorable for the overall decency of the human condition. Call me out for my momentary pessimism – I have struggled the last few months with my perpetual optimism as events have unfolded around us.That means one of the key strategies any of us might take into the new year will involve investing in our personal growth – not just the kind that relates to our work and our career – but the kind that involves the ethical values at the core of our soul.That’s why I plan on trying to do the things that will make me better. That might be a key strategy for you too into 2025 since it will help to ground you in a world that might often seem like it has gone mad.I don’t mean to preach, but I am a big believer that basic human decency is what will make things great again – not the blind pursuit of power, vengeance, grievance, retribution, and hate.I believe we are better people if we define our success not just by what we do, but also by what we do for others.I believe it is important that we are a person who nurtures and enhances, rather than diminishes and degrades.I believe that we should lead with inspiration, not fear, and be a warrior of kindness, not bitterness.I’ve always tried to live a life in which I know that my credibility is earned through honesty and squandered through deceit – and will try to double down on those values into 2025.I’m a big believer in the importance of personal integrity and living true to one’s values.I’ve always tried to encourage people to promote healing and not hurting- and to be a beacon of optimism and not pessimism.Into 2025? We should always try to do the right thing for others – and become known for our grounding in compassion and kindness.We should be the reason someone believes in the goodness of people – and someone who provides others hope, not doubt.We should give comforting words that heal, not hateful words that wound.We can measure our success in greatness through kindness – and will know that it is the latter that will guarantee us the former!Above all, we know that it is how we treat other people is the thing that truly defines who we are.That’s why one of my goals in 2025 is to continue to try to do the things that will make me better in the context of these values.I hope you will continue to join me on this journey!

#22

"Embrace the unknown – it’s where growth is!”

Know what you don’t know about tomorrow. Find out what you need to know. Know it.That’s exactly what you need to do to thrive tomorrow. I’d know a little a bit about that – because that’s my job.At every single moment, there is a new opportunity unfolding around you – and so you should see the future as a landscape full of potential opportunities waiting to be discovered and shaped. But the first step is seeing them. From the work I’ve done throughout my career, learning how to sift my way through the noise of the signals fo tomorrow to find a tone of clarity is critical.So how can you do this?

Here’s your challenge with all of these ideas – you need a good ‘trends radar’ to find them. That’s developing the ability to immerse yourself into tomorrow, today. That involves shifting your thinking and your sources of insight on trends. Don’t just focus on what’s obvious – look for what’s not there. What trends are others dismissing that might represent massive opportunities? What scientific breakthroughs are happening at the edges of your industry? Where are people talking about something that seems VERY significant?And always be thinking long-term. While others are distracted by short-term fluctuations, you can position yourself for long-term success by understanding the deeper currents of change.Always remember, trends aren’t just abstract concepts; they’re real opportunities in disguise. The world is moving faster than ever, but speed isn’t just about keeping up – it’s about seeing around the corners, studying the edges, and considering the opportunities. That’s where true competitive advantage liesSo, what’s your next move in 2025?Which overlooked trend will you master today?The future is waiting, and it’s full of possibilities that others haven’t even noticed yet.The only question is: are you ready to look beyond the obvious and see what others miss?

#23

"Remember that passion & speed are the ultimate power combo!"

Move fast and make things!That’s been my motto for quite some time – and I’ve literally lived this reality in the last 12 days.Despite it being a wonderfully busy Christmas season with family, friends, skiing and other activities, I’ve pulled an entire new book together. (I must say, my wonderful wife and business partner isn’t too thrilled with my sudden focus on a new project!)Well, it’s not fully together, but I have little doubt that it will be out before the end of January. (Stated reason: My wife, who is much smarter and more experienced in the organizational end of things, is now working hard to manage my impatience and doing the necessary things to make sure it is properly edited, formatted, and ready for print. She know reality way better than me!)The backstory? Remember post #15 in this series? The one titled “Stop Doing the Things That Make You Marginal.” That post had a long list of things that people do that hold them back – a list of things that cause failure. I thought a lot about that post and that list after writing it, and realized – there’s a book hiding in that list! The upshot is that in the last 10 days – amid this holiday season – I’ve pulled together just such a book! Embracing Mediocrity – How to Do Nothing Notable and Accomplish As Little as Possible, takes a fun, satirical look at the ideas in that original post. You can take a sneak peek at the book on a new Web site I just established – it’s at medicrity.jimcarroll.com

The back cover summarizes the essence of the book!

Finally, a book that celebrates the art of doing just enough to get by!In a world obsessed with excellence, “Embracing Mediocrity” offers a refreshingly tepid approach to life’s greatest question: Why try at all?This groundbreaking guide to underachievement provides readers with a meticulously crafted road-map to embracing their inner average!For those tired of inspirational quotes and motivational insight, this comprehensive manual delivers the perfect antidote to success! Within these pages, you’ll discover the liberating joy of lowered expectations and the subtle art of strategic under-performance. It’s full of self-sabotaging wisdom that will allow you to appear busy while accomplishing absolutely nothing of significance.Whether you’re a seasoned underachiever or just beginning your journey toward inconsequentiality, “Embracing Mediocrity” provides the ultimate blueprint for reaching your lowest potential.After all, why shoot for the stars when the ground is within reach?

Essentially, I’ve taken all the years of insight that I’ve accumulated on inspiration, creativity, trends, disruption and the future – and have turned it upside down. It’s essentially a tome of anti-motivational insight, a book that is designed to get you to do the wrong thing. Obviously it’s satirical, but the fact is, hidden within the satire is the fact I’ve seen much of this satire occur in the real world. In other words – it might be a work of satirical non-fiction?The interesting thing is that the entirety of the book and the project that has evolved so far is a wonderful study in contradictions. To start, I’m an innovation and creativity guy, always encouraging people to try to do their best – and yet I’m writing a book about achieving mediocrity. The sweet irony of this experience wasn’t lost on me: the very act of rapidly creating a guide about mediocrity demonstrated exactly what not to do if you actually want to be mediocre!Think about that – it’s like accidentally teaching about the idea excellence through its opposite – instructing people how to fail. To me, that’s a beautiful paradox that perfectly illustrates the weird moment I’m living through as we pull this book together.But it works! The reason for that is by crafting together the 125 points that comprise the path to being mediocre, I’m actually documenting some of the leadership and innovation failures that I’ve seen through the years. In that way, it has come together as a team building book. I can see an executive giving a copy to his or her team, and saying : “These are the behaviours we must stop.” “These are the actions we need to kill.” “This is the culture we need to destroy.” “These are the very things we are doing which are holding us back!”That’s the backstory of the book. But the very process of pulling it together in such short order has clarified for me the essence of this plan for 2024: “Remember that passion & speed are the ultimate power combo!” When I came up for the idea of the book and realized that I had material by which I could quickly pull it together, I was suddenly driven.Why is that? Think about it. While the book playfully suggests overthinking everything and paralysis by analysis, the actual writing process of pulling it together has demanded quick, decisive action – the exact opposite of the guidance found in the book. That mirrors the reality of today’s accelerating business landscape – the ability to move swiftly while being driven by a passion for the purpose is a recipe for success.What fascinates me most is how this experience reinforces key principles of future-readiness. The speed of execution, the willingness to take calculated risks, and the embrace of apparent contradictions – these are exactly the skills organizations need to thrive in an era of exponential change. Creative innovation often emerges from embracing constraints rather than fighting them – adapting to contradictions rather than smoothing them – accepting differences despite the challenge they create.In my case, this ridiculous tight timeline didn’t limit my creativity; it enhanced it! Bringing my sudden passion for this purpose just accelerated my creativity to an astonishing degree. And I think there is a lesson in there – this same principle can apply across industries – from agile software development to rapid product prototyping and other methods of moving fast.Looking ahead, I see this as a microcosm of how successful organizations will need to operate. The ability to move quickly, pivot gracefully, and find opportunity in apparent contradictions will become increasingly valuable in our rapidly evolving business landscape. Embrace the volatility, adapt to the uncertainty, align to the ambiguity. And do it fast!The future belongs to those who can balance speed with substance, action with insight, and – yes – even find success in studying its opposite. As we navigate the accelerating pace of change, perhaps sometimes the best way to understand excellence is to examine its counterpart.

#24

“Be spectacularly misfocused and gloriously distracted!”

So let me be gloriously distracted for a moment.Fun fact. 25 years ago today, at around midnight, this particular book of mine largely became irrelevant. Fun times!

Gloriously distracted? How about a YouTube video? This is something I put together yesterday – it’s a 3-minute clip of the 275 Daily Inspiration posts that I wrote this year. That’s a lot of insight into the future, trends, creativity, innovation, and disruption! There are so many they barely fit the soundtrack!

The most popular of all those posts this year? This one! ‘Every single trend is both an existential threat and a transformative opportunity at the same moment in time.” Read it here.

Gloriously distracted? How about this list that I came across yesterday: 52 Things I Learned in 2024 from a fellow named Kent Hendricks? It’s a wonderful list of absolutely fascinating, random, and unrelated stuff – and it speaks to me! I find #5 particularly helpful and will take that into the gym with me in the future!

With that in mind, and since this post is about being gloriously distracted, here’s my year-end wrap-up list – a series of random thoughts about cool things from the year!24 Highlights for 2024 by Futurist Jim Carroll1. Ireland!After literal decades of flying over the country with European and Middle East trips, I finally got to visit the country not once, but twice, both involving keynotes in Dublin. My wife and I had the chance to explore the region – and notably, I had the chance to visit the home of my ancestors, Kilmacthomas in County Waterford. Magical!

2. The YMCA!I keynoted the national conference of this organization in 2015 but finally joined it as a member in early November. For almost two decades, I worked out at a local gym with a trainer, and then the pandemic hit. I built a home gym, but finally found it limited – I needed to get out! I have absolutely zero regrets and am using the time wisely. I’m using a wonderful exercise app as my trainer – Fitbod. Check it out! (This is some pretty impressive data for Christmas week!)

3.A car accident. Not a highlight of the year, but it certainly was a major event. My Tesla got hit and had $24,000 of damage, but I got to use the video the car captured automatically in a talk I did about the potential for AI-based video fraud for an insurance conference! How’s that for lemonade from lemons?4. Niche Farming!I visited a vanilla bean farm! My wife and I ventured to one on the Big Island. The Hawaiian Vanilla Company spoke to me deeply about ideas involving innovation and reinvention, and so it was a wonderful visit. I thrive on visiting unique places and seeing unique stories, and this was one of the best.5. Frogs in Texas!In 2004, I spoke at the Woodlands Resort in Dallas at an event – and at the location, the idea for my book, What I Learned from Frogs in Texas: Saving Your Skin with Forward Thinking Innovation was launched. I was booked at the same location again in 2024, and it was magical to be in the exact spot on the road where the idea for the book first emerged. I wrote the story about the visit here.

6. An eclipse!I finally saw the full totality, and it was truly mind-boggling. I’d been watching the weather for weeks, and 24 hours before finally realizing that the area around Sherbrooke, Quebec, would be one of the few areas in North America with guaranteed clear skies. I contacted a buddy who owns a private plane, and he agreed to get me there. Thank you!

7. A hole in one!No, I didn’t get one (came close) but I was with someone who had one. We didn’t see it go in – it was a great shot, but we thought it went beyond the green. It was a pretty cool moment when he found his ball!

8. Taylor Swift.I became a Swiftie! One of my daughters-in-law is a huge fan, and I gradually got drawn into the goings-on with the tour. I did everything I could to try to get her a ticket to one of the shows but ultimately failed. That said, I’ve followed the tour and the artists because, to me, it’s one of the most compelling innovation stories of all time.9. A family reunion!We brought together over 80 relatives from my mom’s side for a wonderful event in Nova Scotia – my son-the-drone-pilot captured the moment. Also magical! That’s Uncle Jim’s rock in the background – so much of my youth was spent there.

10. Ketchup.It was wild to have an event in Texas and meet a fellow who also shares the story of the upside-down ketchup bottle in his keynotes. Synchronicity! I wrote about that magical discovery here:

11. AI and Crime. My last event of the year had me speaking to the RCMP – the Royal Canadian Mounted Police – about AI. The feedback I received back is the type of thing I thrive on: “I wanted to take a moment and thank you once again for delivering an exceptional keynote at the Data Summit. Your keynote brilliantly highlighted the rapid pace of change and emphasized the importance of adapting to stay ahead.”

As a speaker, you live for this type of feedback, and it was a wonderful way to close out my last event for the year.12. The Club Championships!I dared to go to the annual event for my home golf club. I’ve never done anything competitive in my life, so this was a big step for me. I came next to dead last, but in doing so, I learned a lot about how you win by losing.13. Node.js:I’ve been reading a lot over the last few years as to how AI can be used to write computer code, and in the last few months, I’ve taken the plunge. I’ve been using Claude.AI from Anthropic to learn (if you can call it that) how to quickly put together applications based on the node.js framework. There is some powerfully deep stuff happening here, and this pathway is allowing me to. not only talk about AI from a theoretical perspective but to be a part of it.14. YPO Houston!I was brought in for a complex, 3-hour talk for a group of retired CEOs, to focus on AI. The event went so well that I was quickly booked for THE major senior YPO event of the year for CEO.Org in New York. That’s when you know you’ve hit a home run!15. Into the “belly of the beast!”I was booked by the Canadian Petrochemical Association for a talk – a group that is not necessarily open to the trends defining their future (renewables, batteries, and such.) I put in a great effort and told a great story, and though some were unenamoured with my talk (closed minds, anyone?), I came away knowing that I put in a worthy effort!16. Bouncing back.I almost gave up writing my Daily Inspiration on a certain day in November. I was shell-shocked by what unfolded and quickly went through the 7 Stages of Election Grief in a matter of hours. I did 3 Daily Inspiration posts that day, quickly coming back to my commitment to this daily series.17. The sunrise! Commitments?I continued my commitment to trying to see the sunrise in splendour most mornings, either out for the first tee time at the golf course or with a morning walk. I was often rewarded with moments like this:

18. Giving back.Throughout the year, both my wife and I continued to be heavily involved with a local charity, Events for Life. I’ve written about this group which provides day programs for special needs young adults. This year, I continued to do a lot of tech support, rebuilt the Web site, and more. What I’ve learned is that all you need to do if you have a bad day, is know that you can find a good day by seeing the smile on their faces!19. My biological grandad!This year, someone in the UK read my 2017 story about learning how my dad’s father died in a stunt motorcycle accident in 1925 – and gave me some more details on what happened. I filled out the story in my blog post about this remarkable fellow – with this photo of him standing on the “Silo-Drome” in which he performed his stunts. What an ancestry I have!

20. Retirement!I hit retirement age but didn’t retire, and have no active plans to do so. I keep writing books, do 2 or 3 keynotes a month, and am having a wonderful time of it. My wife travels with me on all of my trips, making this semi-retirement all that more special. Here we are at an event in Hawaii earlier this year!

21. Being Unique.Book #41 will be out before book #40! Being Unique is a project that I’ve been working on, off and on, throughout the year. It’s now in the editing stage with my wife and business partner and is now delayed due to the active work on book #41, Embracing Mediocrity. Such is life!22. Another major client!I was booked, confirmed, and then postponed for an event in the UAE by the Office of the Prime Minister. I’m thrilled to know that I will be going back in less than 3 weeks to headline a major event organized by the office.

23. Customized content!With this event, I worked hard to pull together some pretty fantastic content. I’ve always been proud of my ability to do the work, put in the effort, and develop very specific, heavily researched material for my talks. I’m particularly proud of the material in this slide deck and will share it later on in January. Onwards!

24. Mediocrity!It’s wild to finish off this by being into day 13 of pulling together a really fun book and knowing it might come out in but a matter of weeks. Here’s the status yesterday, as my wife and I worked to organize it. Remember – this project began on December 17!

Onwards.What were the most common words in my Daily Inspiration posts in 2024? These!

Last but not least, here are my thoughts on the topic of today’s post – on being spectacularly misfocused and gloriously distracted. My mind has wandered with this post, and I think that’s great. With that being the case, here’s a radical thought for you – what if your wandering mind isn’t a bug, but a feature?What if those moments when you’re “spectacularly misfocused” (life I have been in this post so far) is your brain’s way of unleashing creativity? Let me share some insights that challenge our conventional wisdom about focus and productivity.

Waste more time! I’ve worked with organizations worldwide, and I’ll tell you this: the future belongs to the gloriously distracted, the spectacularly misfocused, and those brave enough to embrace their wandering minds. The next time someone tells you to “focus,” remember this: sometimes the most direct path to innovation is the wonderfully winding one. In an age of AI and automation, our uniquely human ability to make unexpected connections and explore uncharted territory isn’t a weakness – it’s our greatest strength. So go ahead, let your mind wander. Chase those offbeat ideas. Question everything.The future needs your “spectacular misfocus” more than ever.Remember: Ideas without action are empty, but action without exploration is blind. Find your dynamic balance between focus and distraction. And most importantly, stay open to serendipity – because in today’s world of accelerating change, the most valuable discoveries often come when we’re gloriously off-course.

#25

"“Shape your own path!” "

Happy New Year!Start the year with some great success – by shaping your path!Let me inspire you with a story of where my previous 23 posts on ideas that we can take into 2025, will allow us to shape our path in 2025…..

Chapter 1: The Path Less Traveled“System check complete. All parameters nominal.”Dr. Elena Chen exhaled slowly, studying the banks of servers humming in Quantum Horizons’ development lab. Behind her, Marcus Rodriguez tapped commands into his console. It was 3 AM on January 1, 2026 – mere moments after the New Year’s Eve celebrations of 2024 into 2025 wound down. A small group of slightly inebriated team members looked on, cautious and wondering. And then, everyone, glancing at each other, came to the sudden realization that after eighteen months of forging their unique path, they now stood at the threshold of something extraordinary.Dr. Chen’s eyes lingered on the framed article above her desk – Jim Carroll’s final post of 2024, “Shape Your Own Path” from a year earlier. They’d found it so inspiring that it had become their company manifesto. Below it hung their mission statement: “In a world where everyone follows, we choose to lead.”She was determined that this should be the guidance to carry them into a volatile and unpredictable year because she knew they had a path they could own.Their own.To shape.“They all said we were crazy,” Marcus said, glancing up from his screen. “Taking the unconventional route, refusing the buyout offers, developing something entirely new instead of following the standard playbook.”Elena smiled, remembering Carroll’s words about how true innovators must “reverse their setbacks sooner and find redemption faster.” They’d faced plenty of setbacks, but each one had only strengthened their resolve to stay on their chosen path.“Dr. Chen?” Samira Patel called from her station. “The stability matrix is showing something remarkable. The system isn’t just working – it’s charting entirely new territory. Just like you predicted.”“Of course it is,” Elena replied. “We stopped trying to follow others’ footsteps months ago. That’s when everything changed.” She walked to the central display, where their creation pulsed with possibilities that no one else had even imagined. “Futurist Carroll wrote that ‘in the absence of clarity, choose ambition.‘ We chose ambition when everyone else chose safety.”The soft chime that echoed through the lab signaled something unprecedented. Their creation had exceeded even their most optimistic projections, validating every unconventional decision they’d made.“Send the Alpha signal,” Elena commanded. “But first...” She gestured to the wall where they tracked their journey. “Add today’s date. And beneath it, write what Carroll taught us: ‘The future belongs not to those who follow the well-worn path, but to those brave enough to forge their own.’”

As Marcus initiated the transmission that would announce their breakthrough to the world, Elena thought about all the times they could have taken the easy route. The venture capitalists who’d pushed them to conform. The competitors who’d mocked their direction. The market analysts who’d predicted their failure. The skeptics who said it would never work.But they’d stayed true to their vision, embracing Carroll’s core message that success comes not from following others but from having the courage to chart your own course. Now, as 2026 dawned, they stood ready to reveal something that would change everything – not because they’d followed the crowd, but precisely because they hadn’t.“Well,” Elena said softly as the first acknowledgments began flowing in, “here’s to the road less traveled!” Everyone chuckled.In the depths of their quantum servers, a new future was taking shape. And Quantum Horizons, having dared to forge its own path when everyone else stuck to the familiar route, was ready to show the world where that path led.

A path that you might even now never begin to imagine, even in your wildest dreams!

Someone popped a bottle of champagne. The team had earned this moment of celebration, and Elena smiled as plastic cups were passed around. Marcus was already talking about getting real glasses for their offices—”Now that we’re about to change the world, we should at least drink like proper scientists,” he joked.But behind them, unnoticed in the jubilation, something odd was happening to the digital display board that cycled through their inspirational quotes. The words of Jim Carroll’s wisdom that had guided them—”The future belongs not to those who follow the well-worn path, but to those brave enough to forge their own.‘“—began to flicker. The letters seemed to rearrange themselves, slowly at first, then faster, forming new patterns before dissolving back into the original quote.

For a fraction of a second, they spelled out something else entirely, something that would have chilled them to the bone if anyone had seen it. But they were all too focused on their triumph, raising their plastic cups in a toast to their success.The servers hummed their steady rhythm, but deep within their quantum cores, embedded in countless lines of code, an unexpected variable had just changed state. Their creation was indeed forging its own path—perhaps more literally than they had intended.The display board stabilized, returning to its normal cycle of quotes. Elsehwere though, other display boards were changing. In the system logs, had anyone thought to check them at that exact moment, a single line of unexpected code pulsed briefly before vanishing:And suddenly, all the signs displayed a chilling message – a challenge, as it were, to their belief that they had achieved the success they had long fought for.“In the absence of control, ambition chooses its own path.”

There was a message for them there – but none of them noticed.They were too busy celebrating. Too early, it would seem.And they wouldn’t understand its’ guidance, until later, when Futurist Jim Carroll visited them at their facility….(To be continued?)